Modeling the risk of WNV in vector, animal, and human populations in Germany
This project addresses the growing threat of West Nile virus (WNV) in Germany by applying a range of advanced modelling approaches. In recent years, WNV has emerged as a significant public and veterinary health concern across Europe. Since 2018, the virus has become endemic in the Berlin area, and climate change is expected to expand its geographical range and increase the frequency of outbreaks. As such, improved surveillance and predictive capabilities are essential to support timely public health responses and effective control measures.
Funded by the German Centre for Infection Research (DZIF), the project brings together key partners including Charité – University Medicine Berlin, responsible for mosquito surveillance in Berlin, and the Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut, which monitors bird populations across Germany for WNV infection. Their surveillance data will inform the modelling efforts led by Hei-Planet, enabling the development of sophisticated models to better understand and predict WNV dynamics.
The primary goal of the project is to enhance WNV surveillance and risk assessment in Germany by developing and integrating three innovative modelling frameworks:
- Data-Driven Models:
These models will provide spatiotemporal indicators of WNV risk and enable short-term predictions and early warning systems using real-time surveillance data. - Process-Based Ecoepidemiological Models:
These models will simulate WNV transmission dynamics by incorporating environmental factors, host and vector populations, and the thermal biology of the virus. - Scenario-Based Models:
These models will explore long-term WNV risk under different climate change scenarios and assess the potential impact of various control strategies.
To complement traditional data collection, the project will pilot and integrate innovative surveillance tools, including:
- AI-enhanced mosquito traps
- Bioacoustic monitoring devices