VBD MODE – Hei-Planet

Research Project

Vector-borne disease modelling in Germany -preparing for contemporary and future risk (VBD-MODE)

Vector-borne disease modelling in Germany -preparing for contemporary and future risk (VBD-MODE) is a project aimed at enhancing the prediction of vector-borne diseases and patterns of outbreak in Germany. The project will also focus on estimating current and future risks with changing climatic conditions using a multi-model ensemble and scenario modelling. The derived results are expected to inform effective prevention and preparedness strategies in Germany, thereby strengthening public health resilience. A combination of mathematical models, statistical methods and machine learning approaches will be used to address crucial questions regarding VBD and link important predictors, such as climatic, ecological, vector and socioeconomic factors, to the spatiotemporal patterns of VBD emergence, spread and incidence in Germany. The models will specifically target the involved pathogen and transmission pathways and mechanism. The project will also explore possible intervention methods that are tested and validated through models.

The interdisciplinary team will work on various aspects related to infectious disease dynamics, such as:

Investigate and validate short-term forecasts of climate-sensitive emerging diseases such as west nile fever, tick-borne diseases and various Aedes-borne diseases such as dengue
Assess scenario based threats to epidemiological diseases based on future climate and land use changes in Germany
Develop intervention models to understand health and economic impacts of surveillance strategies.

The consortium plans to employ three complementary modeling approaches: dynamical process-based models, data-driven statistical models, and mechanistic health-economic models. To address the current limited capacity for modeling vector-borne diseases in Germany, the programme will also implement several training initiatives, including short-term courses and prediction challenges.

This four-year project, which started in 2026, aims to study not only the incidence and spread of VBD in Germany but also to understand the emergence of invasive vectors and diseases, which can be better understood by drawing from data and experience from other European countries, by collaborating with other projects such as IDAlert and partnering with other institutions in Germany. The major collaborators of the VBD mode project from Germany are:

Latest Highlights

MONID 2026 Pre-Conference Workshop “MEmilio Workshop on multiscale infectious disease modeling” has successfully taken place

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The BMFTR-funded MONID research network enters its second funding period

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4th (Inter-) National Conference on Infectious Disease Modeling, National Academy of Sciences Leopoldina in Halle (Saale)

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Subprojects

There are five subprojects within the VBD-MODE project:

SP1: Coordination , stakeholder engagement and capacity building will facilitate project coordination taking the overall task of integrating data and information flow between modelers, policy makers, and stake holders

SP2: Leverage data and knowledge sharing on disease, vectors, climate, environment, socio-economy, animals and bird hosts involves data integration, use, protection and information generation in line with data protection and information governance laws ensuring harmonization of data needed by various partners to the consortium to answer specific research questions.

SP3: Short term early warning and predictions of emergence, outbreak risk and incidence aims to provide models that focus on predicting epidemiological disease outbreaks using both historical and current data sets curated from multiple data sources. The emphasis will be to test, choose and utilise robust artificial intelligence and statistical models that best describe vector borne diseases in Germany as well as track their potential outbreaks.

SP4: Scenario based modelling of emergence,outbreak risk and incidence using multi-model ensembles focuses on assessment of risk, emergence and incidence under different scenarios of climatic change, land-use and socioeconomic development. A multi-model ensemble approach is adapted and ensemble of statistical, machine-learning and process-based models will be developed.

SP5: Health-economic impact of public health response and vaccination strategies focuses on development of a mathematical modelling framework for the evaluation of vaccine-preventable, vector-borne diseases like tick-borne encephalitis or Lyme disease for which vaccine-candidates are under development. Mechanistic intervention modelling will be used to model the interaction between vectors and humans as well as the interaction with different pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions.