- Europe recently experienced extreme heat waves. How has climate change contributed to these patterns in recent years?
It’s well documented in the literature that climate change is going much faster in Europe. We know it is twice as fast as the global average. So Europe is actually really feeling climate change, and although it’s always impossible to say whether a specific event is fully due to climate change or not. We know that the probability of these heat wave events and heat dome events is increasing substantially. And that we would have more of those than we expect to have more of those as climate changes even more in the future.
- What future climate scenarios should we expect? Based on current data, how are temperatures likely to change in the coming years?
It’s going to continue warming substantially, getting drier, and sometimes, we’ll also have wetter conditions due to floods. There will be cascading impacts through ecosystems, water security, food security, with impact on agricultural production, with impact on urban heat islands and so on. So we expect that to continue rising until the middle of the 21st century, around 2050, 2060. If we cut emissions of CO2 substantially, it could turn, and the curve could turn and bend, and we might go a little bit backwards. So a little bit better conditions again, more normal conditions. But it doesn’t look like we’re going that pathway right now. So, rather, we might face continued warming, more extreme conditions and particularly warm winters or so much milder winters. And what it looks like, we would also see sea level rise. We see more coastal flooding, not only inland flooding, but also coastal floods. And more extreme temperatures come with more extreme events as well. And we know that we expect heat waves, or floods, or droughts, and all these types of extreme events to be more and to become more frequent. And that’s, of course, a problem, but also, coastal flooding, which could have substantial impacts on low-lying areas. For example, in the Netherlands. Even a few decimeters or half a meter more water would be quite problematic.
- Beyond rising temperatures and discomfort, what other impacts is this warming having on people and ecosystems?
They’re not direct effects from climate change, but climate change is impacting ecosystems, agriculture, water reservoirs and groundwater, and all these systems are also impacted. For example, we would expect changes in pollen(allergens). Because we have changes in the growth season and changes in the distribution of allergenic trees or plants. And similarly we would expect changes in insects, animals, habitats, etc from these changes as well. So there’s, interlinked system with climate change, and that’s also very important for humans. So yes it affects our life support systems.
- Are the current extreme heat events driven by climate change alone? What other factors may also be influencing them?
Yeah, that’s a very good question. There’s always been, and there’s always this difficulty to separate climate variability, which could be natural, from climate change, which is anthropogenic change. We do work quite a bit on, actually, trying to separate what is actually climate variability, and what is anthropogenic climate change.
How do we do that?
We use climate models with and without anthropogenic influences. It sounds a little theoretical because, obviously, we cannot remove industrialization or the associated CO₂ emissions in the real world. However, in theory, we can do this in a model. By removing anthropogenic CO₂ emissions, the model produces a different climate, and that we can use to attribute, what would things look like now, if we didn’t have all these emissions.
Climate variability could also be large-scale oceanographic patterns that we don’t fully understand, like El Niño, which we observe repeatedly and in irregular, but repeating patterns. Like El Niño, which is changing the sea surface temperatures, particularly in the Pacific, when the sea surface temperature changes, it also changes the weather systems in the Pacific. It also changes it in different locations. So, for example, what we’ve observed during our research is that Sri Lanka has a different weather pattern during El Niño years compared to others, and that leads to higher temperatures. It also leads to different precipitation patterns, and more danger, more diseases like leptospirosis and overall increases in the infectious disease risk as well. The impact of El Niño is different in different regions.
- What actions can be taken to address this situation at both the individual and governmental levels? How can we effectively adapt to and mitigate these impacts?
Prepare based on your region, trying to understand what these changes could mean for where you are. Prepare smartly, with as much anticipation and lead as possible-I would always recommend that.
Also, help prepare your neighbourhood and your community. Because in the end, if the community is flooded, it doesn’t help if individuals are prepared; you are still going to suffer along with the community. So I think the key is to understand how this could affect you. Is it going to be a flood, or is it going to be a drought? What do you expect in this particular place? And then engage with the community to build resilience.
Also, whatever you do, consider the unintended consequences. For example, water storage is a good example. If you store water, you don’t want to create mosquito breeding sites, because that could increase the spread of disease-not only affecting you and your family, but also the wider community. So, for example, you would want to have a lid covering the water storage to prevent mosquitoes from flying in and breeding while still allowing you to store water. There are solutions like this; that’s just one example.Whatever action you take, but there may also be unintended side effects. In many cases, there are ways to adapt those actions to avoid negative consequences. I think that’s an important consideration.
And do you want to say something about adaptation and mitigation strategies on a governmental level?
Yeah, I mean, mitigation is long-term, so it is critically important to reduce CO₂ emissions overall. And maybe in this context, it’s important not to do things that increase emissions significantly. Try to plan things out rather than panicking.
If there is a need to adapt, for example, you should try to plan it and develop good, sustainable adaptation solutions. That would be something for decision-makers at the policy level, public health level, and land-use level. They all need to understand how local areas, countries, and different communities are affected, and how they are affected differently.
What are the different vulnerabilities? Are some people more vulnerable in certain settings? Those groups or areas might need extra attention because the situation could become worse in those cities or communities.
- Looking at current climate adaptation strategies, are there any gaps or areas that could be improved?
Yeah, definitely. I think adaptation is not always assessed wisely in terms of how effective it is. We want to make sure that our adaptation spending is focused on things that actually work. So one priority is to make adaptation more evidence-based. That’s not always the case at the moment.
The other thing is that adaptation can vary a lot depending on where you are, particularly based on your local government. For example, here you have a very different plan in Heidelberg compared to some of the neighboring areas, which is also not ideal. It’s good that Heidelberg has plans, but it’s not good that other villages and cities have very few.
For some issues, Heidelberg’s measures may be enough to provide protection, but for others, you’re only as strong as your weakest link. So you need policies that support and encourage adaptation more consistently to reduce inequalities and ensure equal levels of protection, for example.
- How do you assess the current direction of climate change research? Are there areas where scientists should shift focus or rethink existing approaches?
I think we’re doing the easy stuff. I think we’re focusing on the lower-hanging fruit, and then we shy away from the more complex patterns.
To give one example, you have the Earth’s climate system, and then you have the biosphere, which includes plants, animal species, insect species, and everything that’s living within that interconnected system. Many of the impacts of climate change on us would go through this biosphere. The Earth’s climate system affects the biosphere, and changes in plants, species, and their interactions stress the system. We don’t capture that very well in our disease risk estimates. The same is true for agriculture. Agriculture is also one of those intermediate systems. These are all more complex.
If you want to understand health outcomes, like pandemic risk, changes in vegetation cover, effects on recreation, or food security, for example, you need to do something more complex because these are indirect pathways. I suspect those pathways will be the most important in the end, but they’re also much more difficult and complex. We’ve researched them much less than we’ve researched very direct and simple pathways, like heat.
The same applies to combination risks. If you have a heat wave together with drought, which creates water insecurity, the impacts could become much worse than if you considered either one on its own. We rarely look at those together. We look at heat by itself, and water insecurity by itself. But that’s not how these things actually occur. They happen together as compounding events, and they affect ecosystems. Through those changes, they affect our health in multiple pathways.
I think we just think too simply about these things. We shouldn’t do that. It’s a complex system. It has dynamics, and the different parts interact a lot. We should do the more difficult work. We should be brave enough to tackle the hard questions and try to understand complexity instead of shying away from it.
- How important is hope and resilience when discussing the future of climate change? Have there been moments in your work that made you feel optimistic or more positive?
I think I can see people changing their behaviour and daily lives. People here(Heidelberg), for example, compared to other places, have stopped cutting their lawns to support biodiversity-for the bumblebees, for pollination. That’s a very simple change, but it’s possible, and it makes a real difference because we need these pollinators.
There are also groups in society that have managed to transition to reducing CO₂ emissions and living more sustainably. That’s very positive. So I think we should think about this as something that’s possible and then multiply these efforts. We should take these examples as positive opportunities for change.
I also love cities without cars. I think that’s fantastic-without all the noise and the fumes. It’s another positive example. When you’re in a city that has changed its traffic patterns, limited traffic in the city centre, and maybe increased cycling infrastructure, it really changes the place. It’s obviously worthwhile when you observe it and experience it.
A lot of people are afraid because they think they’ll lose money or income, but there are still good opportunities to change income. I think we just need to be more innovative.
So, overall, I think there are good things happening. There are positive changes, and there are positive opportunities as well.
